The scenario of Trump's return would impact the export market in what ways?

The return of Donald Trump to the position of President of the United States would create many fluctuations and impacts on the world export market, especially in the context of trade and foreign policies of the United States. Here are some possible scenarios:

  1. Trade negotiations and reconciliation: Trump often applies protectionist trade policies and emphasizes strong national interests. His re-emergence could lead to renegotiation of trade agreements or even withdrawal from current agreements, such as the US-China trade deal or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP). This could create instability and uncertainty for businesses and related countries.
  2. Global supply chain disruptions: Trump's "America First" policy has created disruptions in the global supply chain, especially with countries like China and Mexico. His return could lead to anxiety and adjustments in the supply chains of companies and countries.
  3. Financial market fluctuations: Trump's policies and measures often have a significant impact on the global financial market, especially during the trade war with China. His return could lead to fluctuations in the stock market, foreign exchange, and commodities.
  4. Market sentiment impact: Uncertainty about US trade and foreign policies under Trump's presidency could lead to fluctuations and concerns in global market sentiment. Investors and businesses may postpone investment decisions or business expansions until there is clearer direction on policy.

However, specific outcomes depend on various factors, including how Trump implements his policies, the reactions of other countries, and how the market and investors assess and adapt to these fluctuations.

SOH predicts some scenarios for the Vietnamese export market:

  1. US-China trade: Trump's trade policy could continue to create tensions in US-China trade relations, which could create opportunities or challenges for exporting countries like Vietnam. If Chinese goods face higher import tariffs into the US, businesses may seek alternative sources like Vietnam. However, there is also a possibility that Vietnam could become the next target for US protectionist measures.
  2. US trade policy: If Trump continues to promote protectionist trade policies, there could be new defensive measures against Vietnamese exports to the US market. This could increase costs for exporting businesses and reduce their competitiveness.
  3. Shaping regional trade relations: Trump could continue to apply strong trade measures to promote US national interests in regional trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) or the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This could pose challenges for Vietnam in maintaining or expanding its export scale.

In summary, the return of Donald Trump could create an uncertain and fluctuating trade environment for Vietnam's exports, requiring the government and businesses to adapt and seek new opportunities in a complex and multifaceted market scenario.

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